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New York CNN —After decades of growth bolstered by low interest rates and easy credit, commercial real estate has hit a wall. I take that as a signal of a potential turn in the CMBS market in terms of the market sentiment. It’s not just all gloom and doom in the CRE market. Richmond Federal Reserve President Tom Barkin echoed the idea that the central bank may not cut interest rates this year. OPEC+, a coalition of the world’s top oil producing countries, had announced voluntary oil cuts of 2.2 million barrels per day in November.
Persons: Tracy Chen, Chen, that’s, Bell, Banks aren’t, CMBS, We’ve, they’ve, , Jerome Powell, Torsten Slok, , Tom Barkin, ” Barkin, “ I’m, Eva Rothenberg, Brent, Goldman Sachs Organizations: CNN Business, Bell, New York CNN, New York Community Bancorp, Brandywine, Intercontinental Exchange and Bank of America, outperformance, Fed, New York Community Bank, York Community Bank, Federal, Apollo Global Management, Richmond Federal, CNBC, OPEC, AAA Locations: New York, Japan, Switzerland, Germany, New, New York City, Richmond, OPEC, Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, United States
Now, some economists think the Fed won’t cut interest rates at all this year. “The Fed will not cut rates this year and rates are going to stay higher for longer,” he added. Richmond Federal Reserve President Tom Barkin echoed the idea that the central bank may not cut interest rates this year. In some ways, the expectations of interest rate cuts by the Fed undermined their efforts to actually cut the rates. Still, about half of investors are expecting an interest rate cut at the Fed’s June meeting, according to the CME FedWatch tool.
Persons: , that’s, Jerome Powell, Torsten Slok, , Tom Barkin, ” Barkin, “ I’m, ” Robert Frick, , Powell Organizations: New, New York CNN, Federal, Apollo Global Management, Richmond Federal, CNBC, Navy Federal Credit Union, CNN, Fed, National Federation of Independent, Investors, Financial Services, Senate Locations: New York, Richmond
The positive economic developments as well as Fed officials’ forecasts for at least three rate cuts this year had investors eying a March pivot. Meanwhile, Barkin — who will also be voting on Fed policy decisions at meetings this year — isn’t ruling March out entirely. For Barkin, “the breadth of inflation settling” and “the consistency of inflation settling” matter in his evaluation of whether the inflation rate is approaching the Fed’s target. Unlike many Fed officials, Barkin does not have a PhD in economics but has an MBA and a law degree. Investors will be paying close attention to any hints of the timing of rate cuts in the central bank’s latest statement and Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s press conference.
Persons: Tom Barkin, Barkin, eying, Christopher Waller, , Loretta Mester, Barkin —, isn’t, ” Barkin, , ” ‘ There’s, John Williams, Jerome Powell, Williams, “ There’s, Jerome Powell’s Organizations: New, New York CNN, Richmond Federal, CNN, Fed, Cleveland Fed, FactSet, Richmond Fed, McKinsey, ” New York Fed, Raleigh Chamber of Commerce, That’s Locations: New York
At the same time, in a panel discussion at the International Monetary Fund, Powell did not rule out another rate hike to help reduce inflation to the Fed's 2% target level. “We are not confident," he said, that the Fed’s benchmark rate is high enough to steadily reduce inflation to its 2% target. Political Cartoons View All 1237 ImagesPowell said that "if it becomes appropriate” to raise rates further, “we will not hesitate to do so” but said that for now it isn’t ”appropriate” to increase the Fed's benchmark rate. The central bank's benchmark short-term rate, now about 5.4%, is at its highest level in 22 years. O’Neill Paese said “it would be unwise to suggest that further rate hikes are off the table.”But she added that the Fed’s benchmark rate is “exerting modest downward pressure on inflation,” so officials “can afford to await further data before concluding” that more rate hikes might be needed.
Persons: Jerome Powell, Powell, , Powell’s, Tom Barkin, ” Barkin, ” Kathleen O’Neill Paese, Louis, O’Neill Paese Organizations: WASHINGTON, , International Monetary Fund, Fed, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, Federal Reserve Bank of St Locations: United States
Washington, DC CNN —Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell is leaving the door open for additional interest rate hikes to defeat inflation, he said Thursday in prepared remarks. However, investors are bullish about another pause in rate hikes next month, according to fed funds rate futures. As Powell began to deliver his speech, he was interrupted by climate protesters who made their way onto the stage. That could potentially be a headache for the Fed, since strong demand could be maintaining some upward pressure on prices. Richmond Fed President Thomas Barkin hinted that the Fed could forgo additional action because the economy perhaps hasn’t felt the full impact of the Fed’s previous 11 rate hikes just yet.
Persons: Jerome Powell, , ” Powell, Powell, Stocks, Dow, Kathleen O’Neill Paese, Thomas Barkin, hasn’t, ” Barkin, — CNN’s Krystal Hur Organizations: DC CNN — Federal, International Monetary Fund, Economic, of New, Nasdaq, Treasury, Interim Kansas, Richmond Fed Locations: Washington, Washington ,, of New York, Jeffersonville , Indiana, New Orleans
Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond President Thomas Barkin poses during a break at a Dallas Fed conference on technology in Dallas, Texas, U.S., May 23, 2019. “That’s why I supported our decision to hold rates steady at the last meeting,” Barkin said. The Fed, at its policy meeting on Sept. 19-20, maintained its federal funds target rate range at 5.25%-5.50%. Aggressive Fed rate rises have been aimed at lowering inflation pressures, and Barkin said the path of inflation remains his key focus. “The path forward to me depends on whether we can convince ourselves inflationary pressures are behind us, or whether we see them persisting,” Barkin said.
Persons: Thomas Barkin, Ann Saphir, Barkin, , ” Barkin, Michael S, Leslie Adler Organizations: Reserve Bank of Richmond, Dallas Fed, REUTERS, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, NYU, Thomson Locations: Dallas , Texas, U.S
A man arranges produce at Best World Supermarket in the Mount Pleasant neighborhood of Washington, D.C., U.S., August 19, 2022. REUTERS/Sarah Silbiger/File photo(Reuters) - U.S. inflation remains too high, although recent readings showing price pressures have eased notably were welcome, Richmond Federal Reserve President Thomas Barkin said on Thursday. “Certainly, last month’s inflation read was a good one and I hope it is a sign,” Barkin said in remarks prepared for a speech in Virginia. The Fed’s preferred measure of inflation - the Personal Consumption Expenditures price index - was up 3% year-over-year in June, down from 7% a year earlier. Barkin’s prepared remarks focused largely on whether a recession is imminent.
Persons: Sarah Silbiger, Thomas Barkin, ” Barkin, Barkin, Barkin’s Organizations: Washington , D.C, REUTERS, Richmond Federal, Fed Locations: Mount Pleasant, Washington ,, Virginia, U.S
New York CNN —The Federal Reserve faced a particularly vexing decision this week: Should it raise interest rates during a bank crisis? But the economic reports heading into this week’s Fed meeting suggest the economy remains too hot. The Fed ultimately reached a unanimous decision to raise interest rates for the ninth meeting in a row. “The one thing that I hear loud and clear from everybody is that they hate inflation. They find inflation to be unfair,” Barkin said, referring to talking to residents in his Fed district.
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